Switch Successor Looms, Original Model Sales Dip

Nintendo's hardware sales forecast takes another hit, as Switch console and game sales fell short of projections. For the first nine months of the fiscal year, dedicated game console sales plummeted 31.7% year-over-year to 895.5 billion yen (approximately $5.7 billion). This significant drop stems from decreased sales of both the Nintendo Switch hardware and its software.

Mobile and IP-related revenue also experienced a decline, falling 33.9% year-over-year to 49.7 billion yen (approximately $320 million). This is largely attributed to the challenging comparison with the highly successful 2023 release of The Super Mario Bros. Movie. Consequently, gross profit decreased by 27.3% year-on-year to 565.5 billion yen (approximately $3.6 billion).

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Nintendo has again lowered its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025, marking the second consecutive revision. The company anticipates even lower Nintendo Switch hardware sales, reducing its projection by 1.5 million units to 11 million, and software sales by 10 million to 150 million.

While sales declines are expected for the eight-year-old Switch, the drop is steeper than Nintendo initially predicted. Nevertheless, the Switch has surpassed 150 million units sold—a remarkable achievement. While overtaking the PlayStation 2's 160 million sales to become the best-selling console of all time might be a stretch, surpassing the Nintendo DS's 154 million sales remains a possibility.

Nintendo characterized Switch and software sales for the third quarter (ending December 31, 2024) as "stable considering the platform's age." Overall Switch family sales were down 30.6% year-over-year at 9.54 million units, and software sales decreased by 24.4% year-over-year to 123.98 million units. However, Nintendo highlighted strong sales of new titles: The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (3.91 million), Super Mario Party Jamboree (6.17 million), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (5.38 million), and Nintendo Switch Sports (2.63 million) during the quarter. Mario & Luigi: Brothership also reached 1.4 million units sold.

Super Mario Party Jamboree stands out as a significant success. Within its first 11 weeks (following its October 17, 2024 release), it outpaced sales of previous Mario Party titles on the Switch.

Crucially, active Switch users remain high, with 129 million annual playing users in 2024. This indicates continued engagement despite the console's age. Nintendo noted that while Switch unit sales declined, holiday season sales in some weeks even exceeded those of the previous year.

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Given the financial report, investors eagerly await the Nintendo Switch 2's launch. Nintendo confirmed upcoming releases for the original Switch: Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition (March 20), and Pokémon Legends: Z-A and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond (2025).

The Switch 2 was also mentioned, with Nintendo reiterating its planned 2025 release and referencing the January 16th hardware reveal video. A dedicated Switch 2 Direct is scheduled for April 2nd, along with global hands-on events.